Key news events
Day 06 of 26 · 8 min read · By DT Terminal
Scheduled economic releases such as interest rate decisions, inflation and jobs data can move price further in a minute than in the hour before. This lesson shows which releases matter, what a news spike does to spreads and stops, and how to check the calendar before you trade.
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Worked examples, the quiz and the interactive tools are in the app. Free account.
Why news moves price
A price is what traders expect something to be worth. Scheduled releases change that expectation at once: inflation, jobs, interest rates. Rates matter most, because they decide what a currency pays to hold, so they move currencies, gold and stock indices together.
Before each release, economists publish a forecast, and much of it is already in the price. What moves price is the surprise: the gap between the forecast and the actual figure. A match barely moves the chart. A wide miss can move it more in a minute than all morning.
What happens around a release
Three things change around a high-impact release, and all three work against a stop loss.
- Spreads widen. Liquidity providers pull their quotes, so the spread can grow to several times normal.
- Price spikes both ways while the market works out what the number means.
- Stops fill worse. A stop closes at the next available price, which can be well past your level. That difference is slippage.
A good setup can be stopped out by the spike, then go exactly where you expected.
DT Terminal ChartsXAUUSD · M5Go deeper
A short closes at the ask, which sits above the bid candles on an MT5 chart. So a wider spread alone can reach a short's stop without the chart seeming to touch it.
The chart below the sketch is the same morning on five minute candles: the size of the release candle, and the volume behind it.
When a good setup is stopped out by the spike and then goes where you expected, the idea was right. The timing put the stop inside the release's noise.
The releases that matter
Hundreds of figures come out every week. A handful move the market reliably. Calendars rate each release high, medium or low impact.
| Event | When | Moves | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) | Usually the first Friday of the month, 08:30 New York | Every USD pair, gold and US indices | High |
| US CPI (inflation) | Monthly, usually mid-month, 08:30 New York | Every USD pair, gold and US indices | High |
| FOMC rate decision | 8 times a year, 14:00 New York, press conference 14:30 | Everything priced in dollars | High |
| ECB, BoE and BoJ rate decisions | About 8 times a year each | EUR, GBP and JPY pairs, and their local indices | High |
| GDP, retail sales, PMIs | Monthly, or quarterly for GDP | The currency of the country releasing it | Medium |
| US weekly jobless claims | Every Thursday, 08:30 New York | USD pairs, usually a smaller move | Medium |
| Company earnings | Quarterly, before the US open or after the close | That stock CFD, often with a gap | High |
| Crypto-specific news | Unscheduled | Crypto, sometimes all of it at once | Varies |
Find this week's releases in the Economic Calendar
Clock changes and crypto
Release times are fixed in the releasing country's clock, so they move on yours when clocks change. For a few weeks each spring and autumn the gap between New York and Europe is an hour shorter than usual.
Crypto has no calendar of its own. Its biggest moves often come from unscheduled news such as an exchange outage, a hack or a regulator's announcement, while it still reacts to the big US releases.
A routine before every session
- Open an economic calendar before you trade, filtered to high impact, your instruments and your timezone.
- Mark a no-new-trades window: 15 minutes either side of a high-impact release on anything you trade.
- Decide what to do with each exposed open trade before the release, while calm.
- Remember what else moves. USD news moves gold and the US indices too.
Interactive tool
News exposure check
This interactive tool runs in the app, with your own numbers.
Make the window a rule
Go deeper
Set a reminder for the releases that matter to you, so you hear about them even with no chart open. The window is a common rule while you learn. USD news moves gold and the US indices, not only the pairs with USD in their name.
When you write up a day in the journal and one of your trades broke the rule, name it there, and the misses are counted instead of forgotten.
Two releases, worked through
Illustrations with realistic prices, not real trades. Contract sizes and spreads vary by broker.
Worked example
Example 01: NFP day on XAUUSD
The worked example, with every number walked through, is in the app.
The full working
From 08:00 gold trades quietly between 4,006.00 and 4,012.00. The trader buys on 0.10 lots. On most brokers one lot of XAUUSD is 100 ounces, so each 1.00 move is worth $10.00 at this size. Planned risk: 6.00 × $10.00 = $60.00.
The first release candle drops to 3,996.40, 7.60 below the stop. Actual loss: 4,010.00 minus 4,001.20 = 8.80. By 09:15 gold is at 4,031.00. Check your own platform's symbol specification for contract size.
A second release: CPI on NAS100
Worked example
Example 02: A CPI print on NAS100
The worked example, with every number walked through, is in the app.
A rate decision is two releases
A rate decision with a press conference is two releases. The no-trade window runs until 15 minutes after the press conference starts.
Worked example
Example 03: An FOMC press conference reverses the first move
The worked example, with every number walked through, is in the app.
The full working
EURUSD is at 1.16500 before the statement. Rates are held as expected. The dollar falls and EURUSD reaches 1.16900 by 14:10. After the press conference the dollar recovers, and by 15:00 EURUSD is at 1.16250, 65 pips off the high.
The trader waited 15 minutes after the statement and bought at 1.16850, with a 25 pip stop on 0.20 lots ($2.00 a pip, since one lot is $10 a pip). The stop filled at 1.16570, 3 pips of slippage: 28 pips × $2.00 = $56.00. Fifteen minutes after 14:00 is not fifteen minutes after the last release.
Check yourself
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Quiz
Check yourself: 1 question
Answer each question and see why it is right, in the app.