# How to Backtest ICT Concepts and Measure Them · DT Academy > Test an ICT concept properly: write a rule a stranger could mark, replay bar by bar, log every setup, check sample size and beat a control first. [Back to ICT Concepts](https://www.thedtterminal.com/academy/courses/ict-concepts) Lesson 16Testing ICT concepts in the backtester and journal Chapters done # Testing ICT concepts in the backtester and journal Lesson 16 · 5 min read · By DT Terminal How to measure whether one ICT concept works for you: a written rule, bar-by-bar replay with every setup logged, sample size, a control as the base rate, tags for each concept, and the Backtest vs Live edge card. Unlock the full lesson in the app Worked examples, the quiz and the interactive tools are in the app. Free account. [Continue in the app, free](https://www.thedtterminal.com/login?signup=true&redirect=%2Fjournal%2Facademy%2Fict-testing-concepts) Chapter 1 of 6 ## Write the rule so a stranger could mark it An ICT concept is only a word until you write it as a rule. An **operational definition** says exactly what counts, so two people marking the same chart **get the same list**. Here is one for the order block from [Order blocks](https://www.thedtterminal.com/academy/ict-order-blocks): | Part | Rule | | --- | --- | | Order block | The last down-close M15 candle before a candle whose **body closes** above the most recent short-term high | | Zone | That candle's open to its low | | Entry | A buy limit at its body's 50% | | Stop | The zone's low minus 2 pips | | Target | 2R | | Window | Only 02:00 to 05:00 New York time | The written rule ### What counts, and what does not - Bullish order block - Bearish order block - Earlier low or high Bullish order block last down-close candle; zone open to low Bearish order block last up-close candle; zone open to high Counts a body closes above the STH Wick only no close above: not counted Counts, sweep first same rule, tagged sweep: yes **Read down a column.** A wick above the high looks like the same move, but the rule asks for a body close, so it is not counted. Schematic candles, not market data. Chapter 2 of 6 ## Replay, and log every setup Scrolling finished charts tests how well you find examples, as [ICT and your psychology](https://www.thedtterminal.com/academy/ict-psychology) showed. **Replay hides the future**, so you **mark each setup before seeing the result**. Log every setup the rule allows, skips included, or **your mood picks the sample**. Worked example ### Example 01: One setup, one row The worked example, with every number walked through, is in the app. [Continue in the app, free](https://www.thedtterminal.com/login?signup=true&redirect=%2Fjournal%2Facademy%2Fict-testing-concepts%3Fsection%3Dreplay-every-setup%23replay-every-setup) Free account Replay one rule and tag every setup Step one candle at a time with the arrow keys. Take each setup your rule allows, **or note why not**. **Go deeper** When you close a trade, add tags for the concept, the window and whether a sweep came first. Chapter 3 of 6 ## How many setups before a number means anything Say your rule wins 40% at 2R. Breakeven at 2R is 33.3%, so it looks like an edge. The table gives the likely range (the 95% Wilson interval) for that 40% at four sample sizes. | Setups | Likely win rate | Clearly above breakeven? | | --- | --- | --- | | 10 | 16.8% to 68.7% | Not yet | | 30 | 24.6% to 57.7% | Not yet | | 100 | 30.9% to 49.8% | Not yet | | 300 | 34.6% to 45.6% | Yes | A fair first look needs **about 30 setups**, and a number worth trusting **100 or more**. Why small samples swing is in [Day 9, The math behind trading](https://www.thedtterminal.com/academy/the-math-behind-trading), and the same range is in [Day 20, Backtesting your trades](https://www.thedtterminal.com/academy/backtesting-your-trades). Chapter 4 of 6 ## Compare it with a control A win rate alone says little. The **base rate** is what the same entry, stop and target make without the concept: say, a limit at the previous candle's 50%, in the same window, on the same days. That is your **control**. If the concept **cannot beat it**, it is not adding anything for you. Worked example ### Example 02: The order block rule against its control The worked example, with every number walked through, is in the app. [Continue in the app, free](https://www.thedtterminal.com/login?signup=true&redirect=%2Fjournal%2Facademy%2Fict-testing-concepts%3Fsection%3Dbase-rate%23base-rate) Free account **Overlapping ranges mean not yet.** Both likely ranges cover 28.6% to 44.2%, so this sample cannot tell the rule from the control. **Keep logging both.** Chapter 5 of 6 ## Tag every trade by concept **Tags turn one log into many tests.** Give every trade, in replay and live, the same three: the concept (**ob**, **fvg**, **breaker**), the window (**london**, **ny-am**) and whether a sweep came first (**sweep-yes**, **sweep-no**). Then change one thing at a time. Compare sweep-yes against sweep-no on the same rule before adding a second filter. Change two at once and **you cannot tell which did the work**. Read each tag on its own Tag your live trades the same way when you log or review them. Then filter Analytics by one tag at a time, and **write the trade count next to every win rate**. Chapter 6 of 6 ## Does it survive live trading? A rule that works in replay **can still fail live**: slippage, missed fills, nerves. The backtester's Analytics tab has a **Backtest vs Live edge** card for each instrument you both backtest and trade. It sets win rate, profit factor and expectancy side by side, and reads Edge holds when the live profit factor is **at least 70%** of the backtest's. Trades synced from your broker are recorded as they happened and cannot be edited later, so that comparison runs against a **record you cannot flatter**. Before a challenge account, check its rules in [Day 25, Prop firms and brokers](https://www.thedtterminal.com/academy/prop-firms-and-brokers). The whole cycle is in [Day 26, The loop that makes you profitable](https://www.thedtterminal.com/academy/the-loop-that-makes-you-profitable), and reviewing trades in [Day 24](https://www.thedtterminal.com/academy/reviewing-your-trades-to-improve). Quick review ## Check yourself Quick review · 0 of 0 Five questions on testing a concept. If one trips you up, reread that section. [All lessons in ICT Concepts](https://www.thedtterminal.com/academy/courses/ict-concepts) [Previous](https://www.thedtterminal.com/academy/ict-psychology) ## ICT and your psychology Lesson 15 · 4 min read ## Try it on your own account Connect a broker and DT Terminal verifies every trade against it. Free to start. [Start free](https://www.thedtterminal.com/login?signup=true&from=academy&entry=closing_card&redirect=%2Fjournal%2Facademy) [Back to DT Academy](https://www.thedtterminal.com/academy) DT Academy is education, not financial advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Trading carries a high risk of losing money, and past results, examples and backtests do not guarantee future results. [Risk disclosure](https://www.thedtterminal.com/risk-disclosure) --- Risk disclosure: Futures, forex and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. [Read the full risk disclosure](https://www.thedtterminal.com/legal/risk-disclosure). This is the Markdown version of https://www.thedtterminal.com/academy/ict-testing-concepts. [Home](https://www.thedtterminal.com/) · [Verification](https://www.thedtterminal.com/verification) · [Pricing](https://www.thedtterminal.com/pricing) · [Supported brokers](https://www.thedtterminal.com/supported-brokers) · [Rankings](https://www.thedtterminal.com/rankings) · [About](https://www.thedtterminal.com/about) · [llms.txt](https://www.thedtterminal.com/llms.txt)